In the news...

[Iris]

Insurance claims might work like this,

They don't. And it's me that has worked in insurance, not John.

There is no perfect system for assessing student performance, and if memory serves statistical normalisation of grades is a routine part of exam marking, to minimise the risk that this year's exam and last year's are radically different standards. It was probably already the case when you and I were doing A levels.

This year's fiasco is horrific, and all the more so for being utterly predictable, and utterly avoidable - the exams were cancelled about 5 months ago, which ought to have been enough time to sort out a robust system.

I was rather surprised that the cancellation happened so quickly. If they hadn't been cancelled there was plenty of time to sort out an alternative way of administering them.

[Rutabaga]

They don't. And it's me that has worked in insurance, not John.

There is no perfect system for assessing student performance, and if memory serves statistical normalisation of grades is a routine part of exam marking, to minimise the risk that this year's exam and last year's are radically different standards. It was probably already the case when you and I were doing A levels.

This year's fiasco is horrific, and all the more so for being utterly predictable, and utterly avoidable - the exams were cancelled about 5 months ago, which ought to have been enough time to sort out a robust system.

I was rather surprised that the cancellation happened so quickly. If they hadn't been cancelled there was plenty of time to sort out an alternative way of administering them.

Erm, I'm not sure where I said John worked in insurance? I am very well aware of what you do to earn your crust.

[mangaman]

http://thaines.com/post/alevels2020

This article goes into a bit more technical statistical detail about the algorithm

Also it suggests a possible solution although acknowledging that there is no perfect solution.

It does suggest that they probably used the wrong algorithm and also they should have factored in teachers grades as well

[JohnToo]

http://thaines.com/post/alevels2020

This article goes into a bit more technical statistical detail about the algorithm

Also it suggests a possible solution although acknowledging that there is no perfect solution.

It does suggest that they probably used the wrong algorithm and also they should have factored in teachers grades as well

Thanks for that link. More facts about what has happened are gradually emerging (and if I could be bothered to read Ofqual's own 200 pager, no doubt I'd know more).

That link confirms my growing impression that Ofqual were trying to do something basically sound in concept, but stuffed up the implementation to an extraordinary degree (the rounding bias, the bias inherent in the small number exemption, the averaging algorithm for previous years, and, picking up things said elsewhere, an apparent failure to address bias between sectors).

Whereas, most people who have (rightly) criticised the outcome of what they have done, have basically called, not for them to do it better, but to throw out the whole approach and revert to teacher assessment, as is now going to happen. That involves massive grade inflation, and a whole other set of other biases that we haven't begun to talk about yet. I respect views expressed that this generation should not be begrudged some generosity, but I don't agree this is the way to show that: I think what we are now doing is just as bad and just as unfair, but in different ways.

[Joan]

Something that really worried me about this, is I read years ago that a teachers in poorer areas generally underestimated the calibre of their top students, so they did not apply to Oxbridge etc. These statistical outliers who would have got tremendous results on the final exams, will never be identified no matter what method is being used.

[Joan]

I just listened to the Guardian. Some students got U's. I had to look up what that meant, worse than an E. Generally for people who don't sit the exam or have some disaster in their lives. Apparently whoever developed the algorithm thought there should be the same number of these this year as last year.

That's insane.

[Sonic Budgie]

I just listened to the Guardian. Some students got U's. I had to look up what that meant, worse than an E. Generally for people who don't sit the exam or have some disaster in their lives. Apparently whoever developed the algorithm thought there should be the same number of these this year as last year.

That's insane.

Shouldn't they all have got U's?

[LowlifeDes]

I got one of those for my Latin O level.

[Joan]

Geronimo the alpaca is killed after four-year battle to save him fails

Good.

[LowlifeDes]

Something something colossal perverts?