Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

[Joan]

Ugh. The skin on my knuckle has cracked open. Apparently washing your hands often is not the best for those who have eczema. I was boasting to my brother less than 24 hours ago, how thoroughly it was in remission.

[Mister Paul]

Ugh. The skin on my knuckle has cracked open. Apparently washing your hands often is not the best for those who have eczema. I was boasting to my brother less than 24 hours ago, how thoroughly it was in remission.

Mine too. I used to get it a lot when I worked in a hospital if I didn't wash my hands immediately after using alcohol gel.

[LowlifeDes]

Yes, I have been fearing that for the last couple of weeks.

[Joan]

When I first moved to London more than 20 years ago, the food was of course disappointing. One thing that wasn't was Pret a Manger. The sandwiches were amazing. I particularly remember the tomato and brie baguette. They have long stopped making it, but I remember my amazement at this simple sandwich, and the fact I could just walk into this low key, fast casual restaurant and eat it every day if I liked. I wonder if I would have gone low carb if pret was still making that baguette? Pret has gone through the changes since, but it's always been there.

Until today. I think for all of us there will be the thing that says "the world changed today" This was mine. Well, one of mine.

I'm not as frivolous as this might suggest, but the next paragraph I drafted was too dark, so I will leave it at mourning for pret.

[JohnToo]

I finally got around to reading the famous Imperial College paper on the basis of which Johnson did his u-turns this week. I don't know whether other mathy types have done so? My reading is that if the measures announced by Johnson hold we'll be in a manageable phase within a few weeks, with ICUs not overwhelmed nationally, and restrictions released within three or four months or so.

Looking forward, the bad news is that we could be up for a year or 18 months of this, imposed and released in cycles. It will change the world in ways that are a mixture of the appalling and the positive.

All of that could be a misreading, of course - and there are plenty of risks.

I would trust the mechanics of the model, but as with all models, the problem is the parameters you feed in to it. The paper does say that the predictions are robust to many of the input parameters, though they do make some broadbrush assumptions about some factors (when you estimate something at 75%, that usually just means you know it's less than 100% and you guess it's more than 50%). But, like you, I would basically trust the predictions of the paper.

What struck me is that this paper should not be the sole determinant of public policy. The key measure they focus on is ICU capacity. It's all about getting the demand for ICU beds down, first from 30 times capacity to 8 times, then to within capacity. And we know that, if demand exceeds capacity, large numbers of people die, right then and there and visibly, in hospitals as doctors triage them as not meriting one of the available beds.

But people are going to die in other ways as a result of the interventions, through poverty, through mental health, and in indirect ways we haven't thought of yet (public policy interventions always have consequences we didn't see coming). Plus there will be advantages too - reducing pollution and CO2, presumably, for one.

It would be nice to think someone was looking at the bigger picture, and not just prioritising reducing the visible and immediate deaths in hospitals over everything else.

[LowlifeDes]

It would be nice to think someone was looking at the bigger picture, and not just prioritising reducing the visible and immediate deaths in hospitals over everything else.

Are you sure? That someone is Dominic Cummings.

[Joan]

I feel really cheerful. I have spent the "morning" (hey, it's Sunday, any time before 3pm is morning) collating a Web page of the names and numbers of people who are prepared help their neighbours with deliveries, posting mail etc.

It's heartwarming!

[JohnToo]

I feel really cheerful. I have spent the "morning" (hey, it's Sunday, any time before 3pm is morning) collating a Web page of the names and numbers of people who are prepared help their neighbours with deliveries, posting mail etc.

It's heartwarming!

It is. I think there's a fascinating split emerging. As a society, we are still really good at doing extra things: helping out our neighbours etc. And that willingness is truly encouraging. What we're really bad at is stopping doing things: stopping going to the pub, or stopping expecting still to have our holiday, or stopping buying up shortage products for ourselves. I'll bet some of the people on your list of the former are also still doing the latter.

[Joan]

Yeah, the shelves are emptying locally.

I bought 4 tins of chopped tomatoes yesterday.

[LowlifeDes]

What strikes me is the stuff that people aren't taking off the shelves. Loads of anchovies available for instance.

[Joan]

What strikes me is the stuff that people aren't taking off the shelves. Loads of anchovies available for instance.

When all the pasta was gone, there were still boxes semolina/polenta left.

Oh, and this

[Lullabelle]

TVC has the symptoms so we are both isolating, don't like being off work when I am not ill but rules are rules.

[Joan]

Oh no! Get well and stay well, both of you

[ransos]

[Regulator]

TVC has the symptoms so we are both isolating, don't like being off work when I am not ill but rules are rules.

Let me know if your gin supplies get low...